Sunday, November 8, 2009

Investors & Friends:

Here's a summary of our investment actions from the past week.

Option Strategies - Covered Calls

1) U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: UNG) - Our Jan calls reached 80+% of their maximum value, so we closed them out. We sold Apr $12.00 calls for $0.62.

The Investrio Stock Selector Fund Bull and Bear Market Indicators Report for the week ending 11-6 is attached.

Lead Fund Manager
Investrio

Etcetera

1) This one sounds like it may be up our alley - an ETF that invests in merger arbitrage opportunities. However, I don’t know if I want to hand over the reins to someone else to pick which ones to invest in. As you know, there’s a lot of downside risk if any of the deals fall apart. Diversification helps to limit the risk, but just one deal falling apart could easily eat up the small returns from rest of the deals that hold together. In any case, this is probably a good source to watch to get ideas for our own arbitrage picks.

2) I'm holding off on the Hyatt (H) IPO. There's uncertainty about this IPO. None of the proceeds from the IPO will get plowed back into the company. The proceeds are going to the Pritzker family because all the shares being offered are the family's. Although the Hyatt brand and customer service are top-notch, and the company has a low debt level relative to its peers, the hotel & lodging industry is suffering, especially the higher up the luxury scale you go. Spending on luxury hotel & lodging is just part of the overall drawdown in consumer discretionary spending (especially with luxury.) I think it will be some time before this trend turns around.

3) Interview with Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's long-time business partner and the Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.

4) US Issues Guidance On Commercial Real-Estate Loan Workouts - U.S. banking regulators are urging banks to work with commercial borrowers to modify their real estate loans, wary of the damaging effect a high level of defaults could have on bank balance sheets. The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, which includes the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and others, said that prudent modifications to commercial real-estate loans are frequently "in the best interest" of both banks and their borrowers. Regulators, in a significant step, also said that they will not penalize banks for performing loans where the value of the underlying property is now worth less than the loan balance. "Financial institutions that implement prudent CRE loan workout arrangements after performing a comprehensive review of a borrower's financial condition will not be subject to criticism for engaging in these efforts," the agencies said in a policy statement. The guidance comes as commercial real-estate woes continue to cause headaches for regulators and financial firms. Slower to develop than the significant dislocation in the residential housing market, commercial real estate has shown increasing weakness in recent quarters. The FDIC, in its most recent quarterly analysis of the banking industry, said that the number of real estate construction and development loans at least 90 days past due was up 16.6% in the second quarter.

5) Bill Ackman (of Pershing Square) long CXW, short O - Pershing Square hedge fund manager Bill Ackman highlighted prison operator Corrections Corp. of America (CXW) as one of the best real-estate businesses around during his presentation at the Value Investing Congress in New York on Tuesday. Ackman noted that Pershing Square has a 9.9% stake in Corrections Corp. Ackman is known as an activist investor but he said on Tuesday that the Corrections stake is passive, because the company's management and directors are already doing a good job. "The biggest risk for Corrections Corp. is that suddenly lots of people stop committing crimes," Ackman said, noting that the recession may increase crime rates. The government is a major customer and there's strong demand for prison space and limited supply, Ackman explained. The company's shares closed Tuesday up 5% at $25.67. "It's also a hedge against your hedge fund business, because as the SEC ramps up...," Ackman said, prompting laughter at the conference in mentioning the Securities and Exchange Commission. "We shouldn't joke about that," he added. Ackman may have been referring to Galleon Group, which was rocked on Friday when founder Raj Rajaratnam was charged and arrested in what federal prosecutors say is the largest hedge fund insider trading case ever. Rajaratnam, who has been released on bail, said Monday that the charges are "entirely baseless." Ackman also said Tuesday that he is shorting Realty Income Corp. (O), another real-estate business. That short position, combined with a long position in Corrections Corp., makes a good pairs trade, although Pershing Square didn't structure its positions that way initially, Ackman explained. The company's shares closed down 1.2% to $23.20. Ackman also said Pershing bought McDonald's Corp. (MCD) shares in recent months. The hedge fund firm had a big stake in the fast-food giant earlier this decade, but sold it. Ackman got back into the shares at $55 each, because he said the company has improved and the number of shares outstanding has declined. McDonald's is also a good hedge against a falling U.S. dollar and offers some protection against inflation, Ackman added. Its shares closed down 36 cents to $58.92. Ackman said he isn't a fan of gold, but recommended
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, BRKB) and Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) as companies that should do well if inflation takes off.

6) FaithShares, Inc. has created 5 Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) to be managed by FaithShares Advisors, LLC., that are based on the 5 largest Christian denominations in the United States. Once approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the 5 funds will trade on the New York Stock Exchange Arca. Each fund will have a portfolio that is screened in accordance with the specific tenants of its respective denomination. The funds will be comprised of 100 Large-Cap companies that are equally weighted. The five funds are: FaithShares Baptist Values Fund, FaithShares Catholic Values Fund, FaithShares Christian Values Fund, FaithShares Lutheran Values Fund, and FaithShares Methodist Values Fund. A minimum of ten percent of the net income derived from each fund will be donated back to charities and/or church hierarchy representing that fund's denomination.

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