Sunday, March 14, 2010

Investors & Friends:

Here's a summary of our investment actions from the past week.

Option Strategies - Naked Puts

1) Intel Corp (Nasdaq: INTC) - Our Jul puts reached 80+% of their maximum value, so we closed them out and sold Oct $15.00 puts.

The date we opened the trade was 12/16/09.

2) Holly Corp (NYSE: HOC) - Our Jun puts reached 80+% of their maximum value, so we closed them out.

The date we opened the trade was 12/23/09.

Option Strategies - Covered Calls

3) Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) - We sold Jan '12 $22.50 calls.

The Investrio Stock Selector Fund Bull and Bear Market Indicators Report for the week ending March 12, 2010, is attached.

The Investrio Stock Selector Fund Watchlist is attached.

Upcoming IPOs

Lead Fund Manager
Investrio

Etcetera

1) If you want to have sky-is-the-limit success in a capitalist society like ours, then you need to own companies, either privately or through the market, preferably both. Very recent history has shown that the stock market can be a rough game. But if you want to win, then you have to play, and you aren't playing if you're on the bench. Play ball!

2) Some thoughts on shorting... one of our subscribers was lamenting the fact that if they're long stock and the stock goes down, they don't panic. However, if they're short and the stock goes up even a small percentage, they get butterflies in their stomach. They can handle loss from long stock, but even a small loss from short stock makes them panic.

Some replies from other subscribers... There is this whole extra psych dynamic that goes on when you are short. There was this movie I saw that had a line about not being able to sleep when you are short the market (the storyline was about this guy who cut the battery cables on cars when the alarm kept going at night). You tend to constantly question your thesis on why you shorted the stock and you tend to look at it on a daily basis (more than your long positions). What I am trying to do is NOT look at my short often but continue to coldly consider if the thesis still holds true. In my case I am sticking to my guns that ANF will not grow in this economic environment. If more consumer stimulus is issued, then maybe I'll change my mind. Good luck!

One other thought about the dynamic is the "familiarity" you have with that kind of trade. Practice goes a long way towards your confidence. Remember the first time(s) you bought and sold some long positions on your own? If you were like me it was both intimidating and exciting... but over time you become very confident on how to get around when the boat is rocking. We don't have that kind of "sea leg confidence" when it comes to short sales... probably never will.

1. It’s not just you feeling this way…

2. If you’re long and stock goes down, one reason you don’t panic is you write a covered call, or set a stop loss, or buy put insurance. And at end of day you know your max loss is capped, because stock only can go to zero.

3. If you’re short, your max loss is theoretically infinite. That’s a decent reason for emotion side of brain to send danger signals, even though your logic side of brain tries remind you it’s only a theoretical possibility, not likely outcome. Your main tool to protect yourself is stop loss, and it’s what I’ve used last few times to sweat less.

4. Another alternative if you want to bet on stock price decline is buy a put option. You know what your max loss will be if it doesn’t work out.

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